Artificial Intelligence (AI) is no longer just a buzzword. From factories to finance, AI has begun reshaping how businesses operate. But beyond industries, AI could transform something much bigger: global trade.
According to the latest World Trade Organization (WTO) report, AI has the potential to increase world trade by as much as 34–40% by 2040. The condition? Countries must close the digital and technology access gaps that currently separate advanced economies from developing ones.
This finding highlights both the promise and the risk. AI could unlock billions in new trade opportunities, but if global inequality in digital access remains, the benefits will be uneven.
AI as a Trade Game-Changer
Traditionally, trade growth comes from lower tariffs, better transport, and open markets. AI adds a new layer. By cutting costs, speeding up processes, and making supply chains smarter, AI can fundamentally reshape how goods and services move across borders.
The WTO report explains three major ways AI could boost trade:
- Lowering trade costs – AI can simplify customs processes, automate compliance, and cut communication barriers like language translation.
- Improving productivity – Smarter manufacturing and logistics mean goods can be produced and delivered faster.
- Expanding digital services trade – Services that can be delivered online, such as design, software, and consulting, will grow rapidly.
If these forces work together, global trade volumes could rise by more than a third in just 15 years.
The Digital Divide Problem
Here comes the catch. The WTO makes it clear that not everyone will benefit equally.
- In rich countries, high-speed internet, modern infrastructure, and advanced skills are already in place.
- But in many developing countries, access to reliable networks and modern computing is still limited.
Without closing this digital divide, AI could deepen global inequality. Advanced economies will move faster, while poorer nations risk being left behind.
The report highlights that AI-related gains are highly dependent on whether all countries can access the required infrastructure and training. Otherwise, AI’s promise of inclusive growth could turn into a new form of economic divide.
How Much Growth Are We Talking About?
The WTO estimates that if digital access gaps are closed, by 2040:
- Global trade could rise by 34–37% (roughly rounded to 40% in headlines).
- Global GDP could increase by 12–13%.
But under a “business as usual” scenario—where current gaps remain—these numbers will be far lower.
In other words, AI’s impact on trade is not automatic. It depends on the choices governments and businesses make today.
A Double-Edged Sword
AI can create winners and losers.
For businesses, AI-driven automation lowers costs. But for workers, especially in low-skilled jobs, it raises fears of displacement.
For countries, AI can expand exports of services and manufactured goods. But without fair access, it can also concentrate gains in already advanced economies.
This makes AI a double-edged sword. It has the potential to drive global prosperity but also to widen the gap between those who have digital access and those who don’t.
What Needs to Change
The WTO report doesn’t just point out problems—it offers directions:
- Invest in digital infrastructure – Reliable internet, data centers, and affordable devices must be available everywhere.
- Improve trade policies – Tariffs on digital goods and restrictions on cross-border data flows need to be lowered.
- Build skills and training – Workers must be trained to use AI tools effectively. Without human capital, technology investments will not pay off.
- Encourage inclusive AI adoption – Small businesses, especially in developing countries, must be given access to affordable AI tools.
These steps require coordination at both national and global levels.
Real-World Examples
Some industries already show how AI can impact trade:
- Logistics: AI-powered route optimization reduces shipping times and fuel costs, making exports cheaper.
- Finance: AI-driven risk assessment helps banks support small exporters with better access to loans.
- Healthcare services: Telemedicine powered by AI allows doctors to serve patients across borders, expanding trade in health services.
But these successes are concentrated where digital infrastructure is strong. In countries with weak internet or limited electricity, such opportunities remain out of reach.
Risks if the Gap Stays Open
If the digital divide continues, the world could face several risks:
- Inequality in trade growth – Rich countries expand exports, while developing nations struggle.
- Concentration of market power – A few AI leaders dominate global supply chains.
- Political tension – Uneven benefits could fuel disputes in global trade policy.
This is why the WTO emphasizes urgent action. AI’s promise can only be fulfilled if technology becomes more inclusive.
The Role of Governments and Businesses
Governments have a key role to play. They need to invest in infrastructure, support education, and shape fair trade policies.
Businesses too must act. Large corporations can partner with smaller firms, share AI tools, and help build digital ecosystems that are more inclusive.
It’s not just about ethics—it’s also good business. A bigger global market benefits everyone.
Looking Ahead to 2040
The timeline matters. The WTO’s projections are for 2040, just 15 years away. In economic terms, that’s a short window.
If countries act now, the benefits can be huge: trillions of dollars in extra trade, millions of new jobs, and stronger global growth.
But if they wait, the silent divide will grow deeper, and AI may become another technology that benefits only the few.
Conclusion
The WTO’s latest report delivers both hope and warning. AI can push global trade up by nearly 40% by 2040, but only if we close the digital access gap worldwide.
AI is not just about algorithms or robots—it’s about the systems, policies, and people that allow technology to work for everyone.
The next 15 years will decide whether AI becomes a tool for shared prosperity or a driver of greater inequality. The choice, as the report makes clear, is in our hands.